Fantasy Baseball Breakdown

By Mike Brody
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
The Six-Month Grind
We’re three weeks into the 2006 baseball season, and if your fantasy team looks anything like mine, you’re ready to unload half of your roster. I know it’s hard, but be patient. The worse thing you could do right now is panic and make a bad trade or drop a good player.
Baseball, more than any other sport, is driven by statistics. It’s a long season with a lot of ups and downs for most players. In the end, the numbers usually even out. If you stick with your guys long enough, they should come around and start producing like you expected them to.
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Off to a Hot Start
While it’s very difficult to watch your team stumble out of the gate (as I’m writing this, my offense is a collective 0-15 today and I’m about ready to have a fire sale), there was a reason why you drafted these guys. If you were lucky enough – or smart enough, depending on how you look at it – to draft Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes or Nick Swisher, you’re probably at the top of your league, right now. But are these guys really going to lead the league in home runs?
Manny Ramirez hit his first two home runs of the season, last weekend. Mark Teixeira and Richie Sexson have three and two homers, respectively, through the first three weeks. These guys are all perennial 40-home-run-hitters, and barring injury, you can be sure that they will get their numbers by the season’s end.

Waiting for the Right Time
Everyone’s heard the cliché “buy low, sell high.” It’s sound advice. Knowing the right time to deal that guy who’s off to a hot start is the key to making this happen. There’s no way Shelton, Gomes and Swisher are going to keep up the pace they’ve set so far – Shelton’s already started to slow down – but how can you not ride their hot streaks a little longer? Just don’t wait too long if you’re planning on dealing them.
Knowing players’ trends is another key in making the right deal at the right time. Some players are traditionally slow starters, like Ramirez and Jim Edmonds, and trading for them at the end of their slow start could mean big stats for you the rest of the way. A lot of hitters heat up when the weather does too, so they could be busting out of these slumps any day now.
On the Rise
Targeting players who are showing signs of breaking out is another key to making the right roster adjustments. Here are a few players who might be available and could definitely help some teams:
Josh Barfield – The rookie second baseman has excelled since being moved to the No. 2 spot in the Padres lineup. He’s got his average over .300 and has 2 HRs and 6 steals. Grab him if he’s still available.
Ty Wigginton – Playing for his third team in four years, the journeyman third baseman seems to have found a home in Tampa Bay. He’s taken advantage of Aubrey Huff’s knee injury and already has 8 home runs and 20 RBI. Playing in hitter-friendly Tropicana Field should help, too. Ride him while he’s hot. Brad Hawpe – The Colorado Rockies outfielder has established himself as the everyday right fielder and is firmly entrenched in the heart of the Rockies lineup. He’s batting over .340 and already has slugged 5 HRs. The 2000 College World Series MVP is well on his way to a .300-30-100 season. You never can go wrong having a Rockie in your lineup.
The Pitching Hole
While there is plenty of time to make up ground on offense, falling behind in the pitching categories – especially ERA and WHIP – can be a killer. Avoiding those complete disasters in the early season is a key to remaining competitive on the mound.
With pitchers, it’s all about the matchups. Don’t be afraid to bench one of your better pitchers for a riskier play if the matchup is right. Throwing a marginal starter against Kansas City or Pittsburgh is always better than having just about any starter face the Yankees or pitch at Colorado.
Whether you find yourself at the top of your league or at the bottom of the pack after these first three weeks, don’t stop looking to make your team better. Stocking your bench with productive players who could be used as trade bait is always a good idea. The inevitable injuries will come, and having players to step in during those times will help you avoid having to make a desperate deal. Bet MLB Baseball Player and Game Propositions @ WagerWeb.com Sportsbook

Michael Brody
Writer/EditorWagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
Mike has been writing and reporting on sports for 14 years.
He started his career as a sports writer and radio broadcaster at Cal State Northridge. Mike has written for the Los Angeles Daily News and has been a writer/editor for KNBC in Los Angeles, where he worked on the nightly sportscast with Fred Roggin. He also wrote and edited material for NBC network specials and has more than 10 years of online journalism experience. Although he lives in Southern California, Mike was born and raised in the Boston area and is a diehard fan of all the Boston professional teams.

Waiting for Take-Off

By J.D. Jackson
Wagerweb.com Contributing Writer

You would not know it by their 10-4 record through the first two-and-a-half weeks of play, but the Houston Astros need Roger Clemens pitching for them.

It’s not too often that you read about a team needing a 43-year-old pitcher to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, but Clemens is not a pitcher who comes along that often. At 42, he put together one of his more stunning seasons in his illustrious 22-year career by going 13-8 with a 1.87 ERA, striking out 185 batters and walking just 62 in 211.3 innings. While Chris Carpenter won the Cy Young for the National League, last season (Clemens finished third behind Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis), his 2005 was one of his three or four best seasons over the course of his career (better than his 2004, in which he did win the Cy Young Award). His 1.008 WHIP was the second-best in his career (bested only in 1986), his 1.87 ERA was the best in his career, and his 44 earned runs allowed was also the best in his career with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. And he was 42.

Clemens tired down the stretch. He labored his way through the playoffs, going 4-3 while helping guide the Astros to the World Series. It was clear that Clemens had worn down, and an injured Clemens posted a 13.50 ERA in his lone outing as the Astros were swept by the Chicago White Sox. Had Clemens not been injured and tired, the history books might remember the 2005 season a little differently.

Without Clemens, this season, Houston is winning games by mashing the ball, which is not something that the ’Stros are accustomed to. They are second in the National League in team average, fourth in home runs, tied for second in runs scored, and second in OPS. This is largely the same team that finished near the bottom in all of those categories in 2005. Though Roy Oswalt continues to prove that he is an ace pitcher, and Brandon Backe has surprised early on, Andy Pettitte has struggled to a 1-2, 6.35 ERA start. Wandy Rodriguez has started off well, but he is a guy who would come out of the bullpen, ideally. Ezequiel Astacio, the Astros’ emergency starter in the 2005 playoffs, has been downright pathetic in his two appearances, this season. The presence of Clemens allows everyone to shift down a spot in the rotation: Oswalt becomes the #2, Pettitte becomes the #3, Backe becomes a #4, and then the Astros can choose between Rodriguez, Astacio, or Taylor Buchholz for the fifth spot. The rotation goes from being second-best in its own division (behind the Cardinals’ deep rotation) to becoming the best rotation in the game, simply by adding Clemens. Assuming that the Cardinals turn it on like they are able to do, assuming the Mets continue to play spectacular baseball while the Braves play their normal brand of solid ball…the Astros without Clemens will have a hard time winning even the Wild Card. The offense just is not good enough, and the pitching just is not deep enough.

The possibility still exists, of course, that Clemens will rejoin the Astros in May. That period exists because the Astros did not offer Clemens arbitration. There are other teams, though less realistic, in the mix. The Red Sox have spoken to Clemens, but here’s to doubting that you will ever see Clemens back in a Red Sox uniform. It is awfully hard to cross a river when you have burned just about every single bridge that leads back to the other side. The Texas Rangers are also interested and seem more than willing to pay any amount of money required to get Clemens to pitch in Arlington. It is just not evident that Clemens reciprocates those feelings, though pitching for the Rangers would satisfy his requirement of staying close to home. The Yankees have called, as well, but Clemens left the Yankees to return home; it is unlikely that Clemens would leave home to return to the Yankees.
Besides that, Clemens’ leaving the Astros for any of those teams would leave a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths. Clemens went to Houston to pitch specifically for the Astros. He wanted to be close to his home, close to his family, and able to spend more time away from the game while still competing. In other words, while he was getting paid the highest salary of his career ($18 million in 2005), Clemens was not doing it for the money. The man has made $121 million over the course of his career in salary alone. If he became the latest Yankee hired gun, it would be a disgusting act to many, many people.
No, the only place where Clemens truly fits is in Houston. And though there was some tension about the Astros’ not waiting on Clemens’ decision about retirement and not offering him arbitration, it is apparent that Clemens would return to Houston in May after taking the first month of the season off. It would allow Clemens to continue resting, the entire month of April, essentially adding a month onto his stamina and effectiveness in 2006, assuming that he is healed completely (and after a 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in two starts during March’s World Baseball Classic, it is safe to assume that he is the same old Rocket). For Houston, the equation is simple: Clemens equals another trip deep into the playoffs, while no Clemens might mean no playoffs at all for 2005’s National League Champions.
Even at 43, Clemens still makes all the difference in the world.

MLB early season observations

By Brad Halfond
Wagerweb.com Contributing Writer

Is there a more dominant threat to opposing pitchers in the National League than Albert Pujols?

The monster slugger has lit up scoreboards early in the season and sent several managers home wondering why they ever challenged the 26-year-old future Hall of Famer.

Pujols’ nine dingers lead the league and this guy must be now considered, along with Alex Rodriquez, one of the best players in baseball. Pujols clearly leads the list of standout individual performances as the 2006 baseball season gets underway.

Other players making an early impact in the senior circuit include David Wright, the steady third baseman on the resurgent New York Mets, and Ryan Langerhans of the Atlanta Braves. Both of those teams should stay in the hunt for the NL East title as the Mets will try to break the stranglehold on the division that Bobby Cox and Atlanta have maintained for more than eleven years.

But back to Pujols. We kind of had a hint that this would be his year from the way he ended the 2005 season with that massive blast that gave the Redbirds a victory over Houston in game five of last year’s NLCS.

Now Pujols has a new stadium to play in, fans who love and adore him, and the serious potential to reach 60 home runs this season. The only thing that Pujols needs is for his Cardinals to reach the heights that the White Sox did last year and win their first World Series title since 1982.

A few hundred miles to the north is the sleeping giant known as the Milwaukee Brewers. This is a team that has already surprised some with its ability to come back; if they can get their bats heated up with the weather, they could challenge for a wild card berth.

Overall, the early theme of the 2006 season might be parity. The Cardinals lost pitching and won’t be as dominant this year, while the NL West should continue to be mired in mediocrity. Unless the New York Mets can keep up their hot start and add an arm or two in mid-season, this league is definitely up for grabs.

It’s still too early to tell what will happen in the American League, but the usual contenders are starting to emerge. The Red Sox have their energetic new pitcher, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling appears to be at full strength, while the Yankees are going to rely on the older arms of Mussina and Johnson. Boston has more speed in 2006, while New York’s bullpen is practically brand new.

If you’re looking for early season surprises in the American League, that honor goes to Chris Shelton of the Detroit Tigers. This kid might revitalize the entire city of Detroit and bring baseball back to a somewhat competitive level. It is very uncommon for an unknown player like Shelton to be hitting with such power. Shelton had hit only 19 home runs in his previous 434 at-bats and now he is leading the league in long balls. Shelton is doing all this from the sixth position, but expect him to move up to the cleanup spot eventually.

The team to watch in the AL is Oakland, with its fearsome trio of Chavez, Thomas, and Bradley. If those guys stay hot and the young arms produce, Oakland will have a great chance to top Anaheim and win the West. The White Sox also have a good chance of repeating, but for the sake of our sanity, I would rather listen to Metallica than Ozzie Guillen any day.

What would the early season be without a mention of Barry Bonds? The Giants slugger has been getting more publicity off the field lately and maybe that is why his hitting and home runs (none yet) are starting to suffer. The other explanation is that Barry is just getting old and all of his various injuries have added up to Bonds becoming not quite the player he used to be. In the end, I’m going to say Barry hits about 25–30 home runs and retires after the season but before he has a chance to pass Hank Aaron for the all-time lead. Would that make Commissioner Selig happy?

Here are some of my observations on the opening weeks of the season around baseball.

New Busch Stadium – I can see the Arch more clearly, but did they even try to make it look different than old Busch stadium?

Giants’ outfield – Pass the Geritol. If these guys last the entire season then McCovey Cove will freeze over.

Pedro – The guy has nerves of steel and will continue to be successful unless a manager steps up and throws a ball near his head. He takes way too many liberties with players, with fewer consequences than any other pitcher I've ever seen.

Soriano – Shhhh …. They don’t want you to play 2B because they have an all-star there already and somebody in management must have watched a film of you bobbling balls in the Bronx for two seasons.

Marlins – and this hasn’t moved yet because….

Upcoming Devil Rays’ name change suggestion – Flounders

Beckett – Okay, we get it, you’re excited and happy that you struck somebody out. Bring that act to the Bronx and see what kind of reaction you will get.

Jeter – How come this guy doesn’t have a bubble gum endorsement contract yet? Hubba Bubba, are you listening?

Burnett comes up short in Jays debut

CHICAGO -- The wait is over. There A.J. Burnett stood, out on the mound for the first time this season -- back from the disabled list and over his elbow injury. It was supposed to be his stage, where he would give an opening glimpse at why Toronto coveted his powerful arm.
But Burnett made two mistakes. And Paul Konerko and the White Sox stole the show.
Burnett struggled some with his command, but found his way through six decent innings. The problem was that he made a pair of costly pitches to Konerko, who hit two home runs, and Chicago starter Mark Buehrle tamed Toronto's offense. Those two factors led to a 4-2 loss for the Blue Jays on Saturday at U.S. Cellular Field.
"It was pretty much the Konerko show," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "The two bombs were the difference."
The first home run that Burnett allowed came with two outs in the first inning. The right-hander walked Chicago's Jim Thome -- after just missing strike three with a breaking ball that slipped underneath the strike zone -- and then misfired on a fastball that Konerko exploited for a two-run blast to deep left field and tied the game, 2-2.
The second homer was also a two-run shot to left -- this time coming against a curveball on the inner half of the plate during the fifth inning.
"Both of those balls leaked over the middle right toward him and that's what he's supposed to do," said Burnett, who signed a five-year, $55 million deal with the Jays in December. "When a fastball away leaks over the middle, you expect him to hit that ball out. Then give him a curveball that leaked inside, you expect him to hit that ball out. Two pitches."
Maybe Burnett expected Konerko to take advantage of the miscues, but Chicago's first baseman didn't expect to see many missed pitches from the right-hander -- even if Burnett was on short rest and coming off an arm injury.
"I got a couple of good mistakes to hit, and I didn't miss them," Konerko said. "That's what you have to do against a guy like that. He's got real good stuff."
Burnett (0-1) was the first to admit that he didn't have real good stuff against the White Sox (6-5), though. In the first two innings, he threw 57 pitches. That wasn't a good sign for Toronto's bullpen, which was stretched thin during Friday's win over Chicago.
He recovered and threw 38 pitches across his final four frames, but Burnett said his command wasn't where he expected it to be and he worked into a lot of deep counts as a result. The positive side to his outing was that there weren't any lingering issues from the scar tissue that broke away in his right elbow on March 18.
"The first start of the year, there's a lot of focus on him," Gibbons said. "He wasn't hitting with his breaking ball. His command was off. That was all. He was in and out. He'd move the pitches and then he'd lose it. But he was OK."
In between both of Konerko's blasts, Burnett held his ground -- scattering four hits to 17 batters. He finished with 95 pitches and didn't appear to have any issues with throwing on short rest, having pitched in a rehab game with Class A Dunedin on Tuesday. He finished with the four runs allowed on seven hits with five strikeouts and one walk for Toronto (6-5).
"At times he was [struggling]. But it's normal for a guy that's coming off the DL," Toronto catcher Bengie Molina said. "He's excited. He wants to pitch. It's normal. I think he settled down really good. He pitched a great game."
Buehrle (2-0) pitched a much better game. The left-hander quieted Toronto's bats after a minor misstep in the first inning. After giving up a lead-off single to Reed Johnson, Buehrle yielded a two-run homer to Alex Rios, his fourth blast of the year.
After that, though, Buehrle limited Toronto to just three more hits, which put an end to three consecutive days of double-digit hit totals for the Jays. Following Vernon Wells' single in the first inning, Buehrle gave up just two hits to the next 26 batters he faced. Buehrle finished with two runs allowed on five hits in eight innings and he struck out four.
"Like he always is: Tough to hit. Myself, I was horrible today at the plate so I have to give him credit," Molina said. "I think with him you have to battle all day. He's the kind of guy that's going to work quick and try to get you out quick."
He did work fast, too. In typical Buehrle fashion, the game lasted just two hours and 10 minutes -- barely enough time for Burnett to soak up the atmosphere surrounding his much-hyped debut.
Despite the loss, though, Burnett was able to enjoy his return to the mound.
"I felt good, man. All the excitement, all the adrenaline going through my body while I was trying to make a pitch," Burnett said. "It was definitely fun, even if the results weren't there."

Towers left feeling down after loss

BOSTON -- It's not how you start, it's how you finish. At least that's Toronto's response to it's rocky start to this season.
As far as the Blue Jays' 5-3 loss to the Red Sox on Tuesday, though, Toronto starter Josh Towers might disagree with that mentality. For him, it wasn't how he finished, but how he started. And he wasn't happy with how he started.
Towers struggled to keep the ball down in the second inning and gave up four runs as a result. That cushion was more than enough for Red Sox starter Josh Beckett to work with. In his first appearance at Fenway Park, Beckett turned in seven innings and limited Toronto (3-4) to just one run on three hits in Boston's home opener.
All four runs off Towers came on run-scoring doubles by Mike Lowell, Adam Stern and Kevin Youkilis. After Youkilis' hit, Towers settled down and scattered three hits to the next 18 batters he faced, but the damage had already been done.
"After the second inning, I think I turned it around and figured out a little something about what I was doing wrong," Towers said. "I was rushing and I definitely was leaving the ball up a little bit. If the ball's up, if I'm throwing on the corners, it doesn't matter -- elevated balls are easier to hit. I think that's what happened."
It was the same problem that Towers (0-2) cited after his loss to Minnesota in his first start of the season on April 5. In that outing, the righty only lasted 4 2/3 innings, as he was unable to correct the issue.
That was the difference between the two outings, and Towers is hoping that he can carry over the success of his final four frames against Boston over into his next start.
"As long as I'm able to add it and apply it to my next start in Chicago," Towers said, "then I think I got something out of it."
Towers wasn't originally slated to pitch in the upcoming series against the World Series champion White Sox, but staff ace Roy Halladay is going to miss his scheduled start due to a stiff right forearm. With Halladay temporarily out of the rotation, Towers will move up a turn and pitch in the series finale against Chicago on Sunday.
Towers was in a similar spot last season when Halladay and Ted Lilly missed time in the second half. He went on to have his most productive year in the Majors. If Towers can carry over the positives from his outing against Boston, it could give the Blue Jays a boost, considering A.J. Burnett, Scott Downs and Lilly have all battled minor injuries recently.
Even with all those factors, Towers doesn't feel any added pressure on how he performs.
"We have our own jobs. We're not Roy Halladay or A.J. Burnett," said Towers, referring to himself and the other starters. "We're who we are and we're slotted in our positions for a reason. There's no point in trying to take ourselves out of our game to be somebody we're not."
For most of the game against Boston (6-1), Towers was on his game. He finished with four strikeouts and gave up eight hits in six innings. The problem was that Toronto's hitters never could get anything going against Beckett (2-0).
The only success the Jays managed against Beckett came in the first inning, when the pitcher struggled with his control -- walking Toronto first baseman Lyle Overbay with the bases loaded to force in a run. Beckett recovered from that costly mistake and forced an inning-ending double play.
"He's one of those guys that, when he's on, he can shut you down," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "And the good ones, when they get in jams, they get out of them. A lot of times, that's where games are won and lost, but the good ones rise to the occasion."
Toronto wouldn't receive a better scoring chance against Beckett, who cruised through 15 straight batters without allowing a hit at one point.
"In a situation like that, we need to get as many runs as possible," Toronto center fielder Vernon Wells said. "Obviously, one run is not going to be enough."
"He just needed to settle down and start hitting his spots a little bit," Boston manager Terry Francona said. "With a lot of good pitchers, if you don't get him early, maybe you miss your opportunity."
When Beckett exited the game, the Jays did receive an opportunity, though.
Toronto mounted a near comeback in the eighth inning after trailing, 5-1 -- thanks to a solo home run that Boston's David Ortiz hit off reliever Vinnie Chulk in the seventh. After Russ Adams singled off Boston reliever Keith Foulke, Frank Catalanotto followed with a two-run homer to right field that bounced off outfielder Wily Mo Pena's glove and into the Jays' bullpen.
That was as far as the rally would go, though. Now, Toronto will have to try and come back from two straight losses in the midst of a stretch where it plays 20 out of 25 games against teams that made the playoffs last season.
It's still early, though. The Blue Jays have plenty of time to make up the difference.

Rogers Centre upgrades abound

TORONTO -- The roster wasn't the only thing that received a drastic makeover during the offseason. The Blue Jays also took on a significant renovation project for the Rogers Centre that stretches from the field to four levels above.
In February 2005, Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers committed $210 million to increasing the team's payroll. Over the last two years, though, the organization has also been able to use around $20 million to upgrade the stadium, which was built in 1989.
"You thought we were busy on the field, but from our point of view, the business side was busy off the field throughout the year," said Blue Jays president and CEO Paul Godfrey, as he led a group of media on a tour of the changes around the Rogers Centre. "This is an attempt to make this building a more customer-friendly and a fan-friendly building."
Before fans even enter the ballpark, the first major change is quite noticeable. A new Rogers Plus store, featuring a wide range of Rogers products, has been constructed on the south side of the Rogers Centre at Gate 8. Hanging above the new store are 50-foot posters of center fielder Vernon Wells, starter Roy Halladay, and new third baseman Troy Glaus.
Godfrey said the new store can serve as a "front door" to the stadium, where fans can meet before a game. This was an aspect that has been missing since the stadium was first built.
Once inside the stadium, fans will immediately be able to see the sweeping alterations to the main 100 level concourse. Nearly 1,800 seats, which were located under an overhang, have been removed in order to widen the walking space. The lighting has been changed to make the area brighter and high-definition flat-screen TVs are spread throughout the concourse so fans don't miss any of the game action.

The main concourse also has new concession stands that feature new equipment and improved food options. Many of the stands have names such as, "The Beaches," "Front Street Treats," or "Hogtown," playing off various neighborhoods around Toronto.
"For several years, we've been cooking on what we say was 'old McDonald's equipment,'" Godfrey said. "Now, you'll see the food cooked on a grill right in front of you."
One level up, in the Club 200 VIP section, which is located directly above home plate on the 200 level, there have been significant upgrades to serve upscale season-ticket holders. There is a concierge who will greet fans, and a new gourmet restaurant, along with a wine lounge and a new bar.
The Club VIP seating area now consists of eight seats in each row, which will allow for better in-seat service. Fans won't have to leave their seats unless they want to.
"This was always meant to be one of the exclusive places in the building, but we never met our committment to the public," Godfrey said. "The level of service wasn't what it should have been."
Also located on the 200 level is a new "Kids Zone," where parents can take their children for a variety of activities and still not miss any of the Blue Jays game because of the TVs all around. The colorful area is fitted with a jungle gym, a Playstation area that has the latest video games, and virtual reality booths that allow kids to try and hit a home run like Vernon Wells or throw a fastball like A.J. Burnett.
There is also a concession stand called "Grand Slam Food Land," which caters to children. It serves juice boxes, milk, cotton candy, and grilled cheese sandwiches, among other kid-friendly items, and the counter is lower so children can see all their choices.
On the 400 level, the Blue Jays have knocked out nine suites and created one large luxury suite for businesses to rent for meetings. The suite is complete with a boardroom table that can hold around 30 people, and that can be removed in favor of multiple round tables for around 70 people. The suite has plenty of seats to watch the baseball game and there are sound-proof, garage-style doors that can block out the noise below, but not the view, if a meeting is still taking place.
Altogether, the suite can hold up to around 350 people and can be rented for $14,000 each game. The suite can be divided into thirds and the smaller sections can be rented for $6,500. It can also be rented for $150 per hour, for a minimum of two hours.
Four levels below, on the field, are the "In the Action" seats, which are located down the first- and third-base lines. There are currently 24 seats on the field, and the club plans on trying to add around 20 more. In the same section, there are four large cushioned chairs in the "Comfort Zone," which is a new aspect offered to customers of TD Canada Trust, one of the team's new sponsors.
While baseball fans are watching the new group of players Toronto has put on the field, it'll be hard to miss the changes that have been made elsewhere at the Rogers Centre.