Quarterly Report on Major League Divisional Races (NL WEST)

By Jonathan Wachs
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Now that most teams have played around forty games, let’s look on in the Divisional Races:

NL WEST

Here’s a division where all the teams are in the hunt for the title. Not much has been determined in the first quarter of the season except that the division is not nearly as bad as many thought it would be. All four teams currently have winning records and they are only separated by 2.5 games.

Arizona has been led by Brandon Webb (7-0), who is probably the early leader in the NL CY Young race. Unfortunately, the rest of their pitching staff has about a 6.00 ERA. Jose Valverde (13 saves), Luis Vizcaino (3.38 ERA) and Brandon Lyon have led a bullpen that is improved over last year’s version. After a miserable start, Shawn Green has been on a torrid pace and Chad Tracy was recently rewarded with a $13 million plus contract extension for his fine work. The offense has been a moneyball fan’s dream: Craig Counsell (.387 OBP), Conor Jackson (.372) and Luis Gonzalez (.387) have certainly managed to get on base. Most analysts of the minor leagues rank Arizona near the top of the list and they are going to need to dip into their system to get some rotation help if they are to win the division or compete for the wildcard.

Colorado has been one of this year’s early surprises. One of the best bets in recent years was against the Rockies on the road, but they have dramatically improved this year. The skepticism usually associated with their gaudy numbers are not valid this year as guys like Brad Hawpe who is hitting .340 overall is hitting .383 on the road. Matt Holliday has added 11 dingers and Garrett Atkins has filled out what has been a very productive, albeit no name, middle of the order. In Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook, the Rockies have developed two nice young starters. Brian Fuentes (10 saves, 1.45 ERA) is having his second straight good year. The Rockies appear to finally have a sound plan in place. In a division that will beat up on each other, you can’t count the Rockies out.

The Dodgers have gone the high risk/high reward strategy the last couple of years. Nomar Garciaparra is the perfect example. He has hit .369, but injuries have limited him. J.D. Drew has 8 homers and 33 RBI so far, but don’t you wish wagerweb.com let you bet on whether or not he would make it through the season? Kenny Lofton (.350 OBP) keeps chugging along, but the Dodgers are waiting for Furcal (.244) to get going. Brad Penny has been pitching well (4-1, 2.53), but also has a dicey injury history. Will Eric Gagne be healthy and effective for the second half of the year? Like Arizona, the Dodgers have a strong farm system. Unlike Arizona, they may be willing to trade a few to fill holes.

Most of the attention surrounding the Giants has been around Barry Bonds. The fact that Bonds is hitting close to .250 and still has an OBP close to .500 speaks volumes about the Giants offense, especially without Moises Alou. The starting rotation led by a resurgent Jason Schmidt (3.07 ERA), the recently returned to action Noah Lowry (3.38 ERA) and Jamey Wright (3.38 ERA) have pitched well enough to keep them in contention, but it would seem another bat is needed for them to stay in the race.

The San Diego Padres recently won 15 out of 18, but still appear to be the weakest team in the division. Mike Piazza has hit 6 homers and has hit better of late, but 15 RBI for a cleanup hitter is just not going to cut it. The challenges of Petco aside, this team has a definite power outage. Only Khali Green has joined Piazza in hitting over 5 homeruns to this point. As usual, Brian Giles continues to get on base with an OBP over .400 and Trevor Hoffman (7 saves, 1.20 ERA) and Scott Linebrink (3.27 ERA) lead a strong bullpen.

So it will come down to Arizona’s farm system, Colorado’s youngsters, The Dodger’s health, The Giants pitching and San Diego’s ability to keep doing it with mirrors. Stay tuned.